Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 17.365293 19.808351 22.439053 25.478394 28.888934 32.593680 36.918495
2025-01-26 13.905208 17.250872 21.129350 25.941382 31.733967 38.463753 46.855208
2025-02-02 12.288241 16.083589 20.693899 26.675296 34.195841 43.300736 55.117285
2025-02-09 10.649273 14.632617 19.679876 26.495608 35.403096 46.586111 61.617229
2025-02-16 9.319615 13.366641 18.688203 26.129628 36.185975 49.211971 67.252497
2025-02-23 8.404174 12.531765 18.144049 26.241854 37.517043 52.532049 73.883981
2025-03-02 7.701671 11.902718 17.792892 26.537934 39.048449 56.129797 81.002820
2025-03-09 7.032520 11.244685 17.324609 26.597619 40.204315 59.220093 87.526246
2025-03-16 6.365182 10.517971 16.682403 26.330053 40.833257 61.555120 93.049769
2025-03-23 5.911286 10.070746 16.407096 26.562225 42.170683 64.926264 100.172713
2025-03-30 5.646788 9.894283 16.520363 27.372855 44.393130 69.664858 109.483402
2025-04-06 5.175958 9.337523 15.991075 27.134892 44.977461 71.969661 115.245764
2025-04-13 4.508499 8.401345 14.797121 25.776687 43.760447 71.528007 116.900292
2025-04-20 4.296030 8.227196 14.835479 26.416427 45.747917 76.107130 126.499365
2025-04-27 4.111961 8.083598 14.907523 27.103609 47.830831 80.908021 136.630185
2025-05-04 3.799466 7.678497 14.498411 26.940848 48.486977 83.449398 143.258730
2025-05-11 3.483345 7.236848 13.989187 26.562808 48.743812 85.333368 148.878299
2025-05-18 3.270274 6.971270 13.772471 26.678891 49.839647 88.627127 156.927369
2025-05-25 3.100747 6.774826 13.665324 26.978735 51.260522 92.510733 166.101518
2025-06-01 2.912908 6.524637 13.438240 27.039568 52.251791 95.696807 174.214700
2025-06-08 2.699157 6.201872 13.048487 26.767867 52.620685 97.816034 180.573470
2025-06-15 2.562966 6.028438 12.933299 27.003583 53.917635 101.587571 189.917072
2025-06-22 2.501509 6.009100 13.119067 27.826467 56.337434 107.426757 203.093596